Property Grunt

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

NAR stuck on spin cycle

It seems NAR is doing their laundry again. According to Diane Olnick of CNBC's Morning Call, the National Association of Realtors released news of a "slight" housing slip based on deals signed not closed in October.

According to NAR's pending home sales index which are contracts signed not closed:

*The following numbers for October was 3.2%

*This was 3.3% below October of last year. Sales number is still above average

*According to NAR's Chief Economist "the index is point to a soft landing for home

I am not an economist nor am I on CNBC but how do these numbers indicate a soft landing? To me these numbers indicate run and cover. It is a pretty big drop from 6.5% to 3.2%. How did I get 6.5%? NAR stated 3.2% of last October was 3.3% below October of last year. Do the math.

According to CNBC:

*Regionally the index (I am assuming sales, they did not specify)rose in the west which was down the last year.

*Dropped a bit in the south. (CNBC did not present numbers)

*There was a 6% drop in the midwest.

*And a near 7% drop in the north east.

Does this sound like a soft landing to you? I think this sounds more like a crash and burn. I am getting dizzy from all this spin and it is really starting to piss me off.

I am officially calling out NAR. I want evidence why they state that a soft landing is on the horizion. I want real historical, empirical evidence. None of this bulls**t about all signs to a soft landing because as far as I am concerned the same signs point to hellfire and brimstone raining down on the housing market.

If anyone out there can provide evidence that NAR is correct, please feel free to do so. I am more than happy to switch my stance if someone can give me proof that NAR is in the right.

My take is that NAR knows the market has hit the iceberg and there are not enough life boats so they are telling everyone to stay on the ship as long as they can. This housing market has been carrying the American economy for quite sometime and it looks like it can no longer hold the burden so NAR is trying to pump out as much money as possible before it collapses.

If the market enters the bend over and kiss your ass goodbye phase, I am sure NAR will stand by the party line that it is all part of the soft landing instead of acknowledging the truth.