Property Grunt

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Report from the Open House Front: Eh

Today was the first open house of the New Year. And the verdict was comme ci comme ca. Not the most amazing turnout but it could have been worse. What I have noticed is that there are more new buyers on the market but they are just as discerning or even more so than the veterans who have been slogging it out.

But so far there has been no trauma to report yet.

Jonathan Miller has written two entries that I think you will all find interesting.

One was regarding his recent 2005 4th quarter report of the Manhattan Market and the differences in coverage by the media outlets.

The other was the media's heavy use of the term "Soft Landing."

My analysis of the situation is that the media's reaction is cautious but hopeful. With the New Year now upon us there is a sense that it won't be as bad as we think itis.

However I think another reason why we are all dipping our feet in the pond but not jumping into swime because we are awaiting the Greenspan/Bernanke transition and see how everything is going to play out. What I am concerned about is not Bernanke. From what I have read about him he is cut from the same cloth as Greenspan and has record of not being stupid. It is how the environment will react to him is what I am keeping my eye on.

Recently the New York Times did an article on the Yield Curve. Which has been used to predict recessions and has been popping up lately all over the world. However it has proven not to be the most reliable indicator of recessions. The word that kept coming up was "Conundrum."

That gives me a warm fuzzy.