Property Grunt

Thursday, April 03, 2008

God save Queens

Brian over at Propertyshark sent me a sneak preview of the 4th quarter and boy has it really hit the fan.

Here's some interesting tidbits

Foreclosure sales have reached two year peaks. New York City has gone 51%. The borough responsible for that increase is Queens.

According to Ashleigh Rose, Queens has led the foreclosure charge while the level of Manhattan foreclosures are akin to Eliot Sptizer’s political career. However Queens is not alone with Staten Island right behind with a 411% increase in foreclosures.

Here are some of those fun charts they have provided.

As you can see there was a bit of a dip in 2006 but now things are kicking up.

Here's the borough table for each year since 2005 for each borough.

And if that is not enough for you, here is the borough chart which shows how much Queens is leading the foreclosure pack.

Let's not forget that Jonathan Miller put out his most excellent appraisal report. In a nutshell sales are down but prices are up. Curbed has an excellent piece on Miller's report with the ever fun comments.

My analysis of these reports is the following.

1. Queens is a great deal. For someone who has lived there for almost a decade I have seen a ton of growth in terms of people. If you don't believe me, go to the subway during rush hour, it is a mad house. This also means there are a lot of bargains out there. I am not surprised about the rise in foreclosures since the last time I was there I saw tons of for sale signs in Rego Park. Commercial properties are probably going to be a better deal since there is a ton of people priced out of Manhattan living in Queens and if you get a good deal you will have more leeway with the rent and be able to attract good long term tenants.

2. Manhattan is still pretty much a safe bet however there is an indication it is starting to lose its legs. If I was a buyer I would hold off. Look but wait. Commercial investing is still a good deal however I have been reading reports that commercial leasing is starting to get soft.

The rest of the report covers the major markets including Miami and Los Angeles. Everything is pretty much imploding which is not surprising but it still very FUBAR.