Property Grunt

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Cracking the Wall Street Bonus Code

I hope you had an excellent Thanksgiving

Many of you already know that I am not biggest cheerleader when it comes to Wall Street bonuses. As far as I am concerned any talk of bonuses saving the day is just speculation.

Tom Acitelli of the NY Observer has taken it upon himself to cut the douchebaggery and crack the bonus code and see if Wall Street Bonuses even have an affect on the market and he comes up with some surprising results after researching Miller Samuel's data.

The Wall Street bonuses appear to affect Manhattan apartment prices much more strongly than they do sales. The psychological boost from the bonuses every year, coupled with the usually slow winter sales season (read: slim pickings on the sales market), typically send springtime prices upward. That’s a reliable reality that reassures brokers, says one industry veteran, regardless of sales volume.

So there appears to be a strong correlation to with bonuses and prices. Not sales. So how does one take advantage of the situation?

Miller Samuel tracked the number of condo and co-op sales in Manhattan by quarter going back to the second quarter of 1990, and the median sales price for those co-ops and condos.

Both the median sales price and the number of sales went up, on average, only in the first and second quarters—the first halves of the year—spiking especially in the second quarter. Prices dropped in the third and the fourth quarters.

It appears the best time to find a bargain is during the winter since sellers will be more pliable especially if they are still holding onto to their homes and were dissappointed by the horrible turnout from the Wall Street Cavalry.